History shows it takes an average of 589 days for a recession to start after a key part of the Treasury yield curve inverts, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
In environments in which investors can sit in cash yielding 5.4%, it is unreasonable to expect significant outperformance from stocks or bonds, says the bank.
A credit crunch is hitting office landlords hard with mortgage debt coming due, causing a smaller share of loans to repay on time, according to Deutsche Bank researchers.